Download A Shrinking Society: Post-Demographic Transition in Japan by Toshihiko Hara PDF

By Toshihiko Hara

This can be the ebook to target a brand new phenomenon rising within the twenty-first century: the swiftly getting older and lowering inhabitants of a well-developed kingdom, specifically, Japan. The which means of this phenomenon has been effectively clarified because the attainable historic final result of the demographic transition from excessive start and dying premiums to low ones. Japan has entered the post-demographic transitional part and may be the fastest-shrinking society on the planet, prime different Asian international locations which are experiencing an identical drastic alterations. the writer used the historic facts, compiled by means of the Statistic Bureau, Ministry of inner Affairs and Communications in 2006 and inhabitants projections for published in 2012 through the nationwide Institute of inhabitants and Social protection learn, to teach the earlier and destiny improvement of the dependency ratio from 1891 to 2060. Then, using the inhabitants existence desk and internet replica fee, the consequences of accelerating existence expectancy and declining fertility at the dependency ratio have been saw individually. ultimately, the old relationships between women’s survival premiums at reproductive age, the theoretical fertility expense to keep up the alternative point and the recorded overall fertility fee (TFR) have been analyzed. old remark confirmed TFR adapting to the theoretical point of fertility with a definite time lag and akin to women’s survival premiums at reproductive age. Women’s expanding lifespan and survival premiums may have motivated determination making to lessen the danger of childbearing. no matter if the theoretical fertility cost meets the alternative point, women’s perspectives of minimizing the chance might stay unchanged simply because for ladies the cost–benefit imbalance in childbearing remains to be too excessive in Japan. in line with the findings, the writer discusses the sustainability of eastern society in terms of nationwide funds, social defense reform, relatives regulations, immigration rules and group polices.

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Curiously, this huge volume of expenditures did not show any visible impact on real economy. This suggests that most of the elder people keep their savings and means untouched by using their social security benefit only. Many of them did earn well and had saved enough during the growing economy in the past. Many of them could own their own houses and cars before retirement. Even, the relation between benefit and burden of pension system, they enjoyed much better conditions before the revisions.

In the 2004 revision, also called ‘Hyakunen Anshin Nenkinn (Safety Pension Plan for 100 years)’, the benefits and burdens are readjusted. 2 % from FY2023 onward) of the average income of a household with an active salaried worker. 30 %, ¥ 16,900 from 2017 and so on. It also decided that the state subsidy would cover 1/2 of the basic pension fund by 2009 (MHLW 2013a). Even though there is such a reform in pension system, the reliance on system is not high in public opinions. ” It is clear that many Japanese do not trust the pension system (Asahi Shinbun 4th October 2013).

3. 3 As indicator, instead of Total Fertility Rate (TFR), Net Reproduction Rate (NRR) is being used. For the NRR, it takes both mortality rates and sex ratios at birth into account. © Author(s) 2015 T. 1007/978-4-431-54810-2_3 25 26 3 Demographic Transition and Child/Elderly Care Cost Fig. 1 Optimal care cost. (Base year 2010) 1. 71. 2. 25. 3. 40. This analysis explains optimal care costs increase more sharply when fertility decreases than when it increases (Fig. 1). This balance also affects the growth of the working age population.

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