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By Al Kemp

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1. If the event’s position (marked *) is located in the far right of the figure, the risk is considered high, and if the event is located in the far left, the risk as described by these dimensions is low. An alternative risk description is obtained by focusing on the possible consequences or consequence categories, instead of the expected consequences. 2. Here P(C1 ) expresses the probability that the person contracts the actual illness and recovers within 1 month, that is, P(C1 ) = P(A1 and C1 ).

The consequences are often related to the degree of non-conformance with the objectives of the organisation. 2. Uncertainties related to factors that can create deviations/surprises relative to the expected values. Important factors that can lead to such deviations/surprises could be both variation and lack of knowledge, for example, due to the complexity of the technology or the organisation, availability of information, time frame for the analysis. 3. Frame conditions, that is, limitations with respect to budget, time period and access to information.

Reflection Many risk analyses use statistics as a starting point for the analysis. Which analysis type does such an analysis fall under: simplified, standard or model-based risk analysis? All three categories can be relevant. The method depends on how the statistics are applied. Let us look at the yearly number of road traffic fatalities in a specific country. This is a description of what has happened, so the numbers are not expressing risk as such (refer ‘Reflection’ in Chapter 1). However, when we address the future, for example, by looking at the number of fatalities next year, the risk concept is introduced – unknown events and consequences, and associated uncertainties.

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